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|The Elements Of The Game| |The Right Bettor| |The Wrong Bettor| |Figuring The Odds| |Refinements| |Sucker Traps|
4.RIGHT BETTORS VS. WRONG BETTORS
One of the perennial controversies among crap players is whether a player has a better chance of winning as a right bettor or a wrong bettor. Although the large majority of crap players are right bettors, one can always find a few vocal defenders of wrong betting. As mentioned earlier, right bettors face a house edge of 1.414 percent, while wrong bettors face a 1.402 percent house advantage. The two figures are so close that, for all practical purposes, your chances of winning are the same in both cases. This difference is certainly no basis for choosing one side over the other. Many crap players will say that your choice of betting right or wrong should be determined by whether the table is hot or cold. By this is meant that there are times when the shooters are winning again and again, rolling a lot of numbers and seldom sevening-out; this is known as a hot table. At other times, none of the shooters seem capable of getting a roll started.
Sevens come up on almost every roll-except on the come-out; this is a cold table. It is true that you can often tell whether a table is hot or cold as soon as you approach it. Since most crap players bet with the dice (right betting), a hot table is usually crowed with enthusiastic players. If you approach a quiet table where the energy lever among the players is low, you can be sure the dice are cold.
According to advocates of the hot-and-cold schools, all you need to win at craps is to bet with the table. Bet right when the dice are hot and bet against the dice when they are cold. This is like saying that the way to win at roulette is to bet on the winning number. You don't know what the winning number is until the ball drops into the slot, and you don't know that a table is still hot until you have won your right bet. When you make a bet, you may be able to say with absolute certainty that the table has been hot (or cold) up until now, but you have now way of knowing that thins will continue in the same direction. The moment you make your next bet may be the moment events take a turn. Remember: The dice have no memory. In any case, much of the time the dice will be neither hot nor cold but rather chopping - shooter wins and losses pretty much mixed together.
The hot-and-cold theory may seem to make sense emotionally to many players, but it provides no real guidance as to how to bet. Don't get me wrong-if you have a feeling that the dice are going to keep rolling point number after point number, feel free to bet right. If you feel the ivory cubes are getting so cold they feel like ice cubes, there is nothing wrong with betting the don't-pass and don't-come lines. Since the house edge on both front-and back-line bets is virtually identical, here is one case where you can indulge your hunches with no harm done. But don't delude yourself into thinking that this sort of thing really improves your chances of winning. Let me suggest another factor to help you decide whether to bet right or wrong in the absence of any overwhelming premonitions. We have already seen that the smart thing to do whether betting do or don't is to back your bets with full odds. For the right bettor, this means putting up the short end of the bet.
If he wins, he will win more money then he risked. However, the wrong bettor must put up the long end of the bet. He must wager the larger amount in hopes of winning the smaller amount. In the long run, this fact does not affect his chances of winning since he faces essentially the same house edge as the right bettor. However, such long-run theoretical analyses always assume that the bettor has an unlimited bankroll. In the real world, all gamblers have to work with finite bankrolls. A constant danger is the risk of being temporarily put out of action by the loss of one's entire bankroll.
Because he has the long end of the bet, the don't-pass bettor has to wager more money faster on the free odds in order to have a chance of making the same profit as a pass-line bettor would with the same amount of luck. When luck turns against him, the money goes out at a faster rate. This is even more true when laying double odds, although the double odds are desirable in cutting down the house advantage.
This is why I advise betting with the shooter. On those occasions when you are losing, the rate of loss will be slower. You will last longer. By being better able to weather the dry spells, you increase your chances of being around to cash in on those occasions when the shooter does catch a monster hand. see more > > >
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